Rising Interest Rates and New COVID Variants Add Uncertainty
Several macroeconomic developments are expected to shape financial markets in 2022. Analysts point to rising global inflation, increasing energy prices, and concerns surrounding China’s property sector as key factors to monitor.
Central banks are also shifting policy. The US Federal Reserve may complete its asset-purchase tapering before mid-year, while both the Fed and the European Central Bank are widely expected to begin raising interest rates before the end of the year. At the same time, markets have been closely watching China’s heavily indebted property developer Evergrande, which has struggled to manage more than $300 billion in liabilities. Households around the world are also facing sharply higher energy costs.
According to analysts, persistent inflationary pressure makes higher interest rates increasingly likely. Additionally, new COVID variants—such as Omicron—may trigger periods of elevated volatility in global markets.
Uncertain Markets Could Create Trading Opportunities
Market activity has cooled from the extreme levels seen during pandemic lockdowns. Many of the new investors who entered the market during that period tend to follow strong trends and trade actively during periods of excitement, while remaining inactive when markets become calmer. This behavior could leave some inexperienced traders holding positions that may prove difficult to manage over the long term.
If interest rates rise, brokerage firms may benefit financially because they can earn more interest on the uninvested cash held in client accounts. Analysts expect retail trading activity to remain relatively strong, as uncertainty surrounding inflation and central bank policies may produce periodic market swings that traders can attempt to exploit.
Growing Interest in Put Options
Retail traders may increasingly turn to put options in 2022. Instead of betting on rising prices through call options, traders may use puts to profit from declining markets or hedge against downside risk.
This shift could become more visible if certain sectors—such as technology stocks or high-growth funds like ARKK—experience sustained downtrends. Momentum trading strategies can move in either direction depending on market sentiment.
Leading Brokers Likely to Maintain Their Positions
The largest and most established brokers are expected to maintain their dominant positions in the market. Although new competitors continue to emerge, the strongest platforms remain difficult to challenge.
Among the leading brokers, Interactive Brokers continues to rank among the top overall platforms. Saxo Bank remains highly regarded in forex trading, while DEGIRO stands out among discount brokers. eToro continues to be one of the most prominent platforms for cryptocurrency trading.
Following the public listings of companies such as Robinhood and Coinbase, other firms are also considering entering public markets. Many online brokers are evolving beyond simple trading platforms and are aiming to become comprehensive financial hubs, offering services such as cash management, interest-earning accounts, and integrated spending tools.
The Expansion of Commission-Free Trading
The trend toward zero-commission trading is expected to continue. Many brokers rely on alternative revenue streams such as payment for order flow (PFOF), a common model in the United States where market makers compensate brokers for directing orders to them.
Although regulators in the US and Europe are examining the practice more closely, major rule changes are unlikely to take effect immediately. In Europe, discussions about restricting or banning the model are ongoing but could take years before any regulations are implemented.
In some cases, commission-free trading is primarily used as a strategy to attract new customers, who may later trade higher-margin products such as CFDs. In other cases, brokers offset the absence of commissions through other costs, such as currency conversion fees.
The Cryptocurrency Boom Continues
Interest in cryptocurrency trading continues to grow rapidly. As demand from investors increases, more brokerage platforms are adding digital asset trading to their offerings.
The two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, reached new record highs during the year, while several altcoins also experienced dramatic price surges. For example, Shiba Inu rose by more than 2.4 million percent, Dogecoin climbed nearly 9,600 percent, and Terra increased by over 6,400 percent during peak periods.
Analysts note that growth in crypto trading activity has been even faster than the expansion of equity trading among many investors. However, greater regulatory oversight appears likely as governments attempt to address transparency, investor protection, and environmental concerns.
Some countries have already taken strong action. China declared cryptocurrency transactions illegal, while policymakers in Sweden urged the European Union to restrict crypto mining due to its environmental impact.
Alongside cryptocurrencies, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are also expected to remain a rapidly expanding segment of the digital asset market, as interest in blockchain-based ownership and collectibles continues to grow globally.