Over the years, many traders’ wisdoms have been formulated, based on historical patterns, on when the best periods of the day, week, month and year are to buy and sell stocks. We delve into these below; however, you should take them with a grain of salt. Many are supported only by anecdotal evidence.
Also, remember that past performance is not an indicator of future results, so you should do your own analysis to determine the best time for your trades. In general, higher market liquidity and volatility present more opportunities for potential profits – but also a higher risk of losses.
Best time of day to buy and sell stocks
There are some conventional wisdoms about what the best time of the day is to buy and sell stocks. This holds that in general, the first and last hours of trading are the most favorable times for trading, due to increased volatility and higher volumes. These periods usually see bigger price movements, which open the way for bigger profit opportunities.
However, it depends on what your goal and trading strategy is – if you want to buy stocks to hold them for a long time, it doesn’t really matter what time of day you buy or sell. But if you are a day trader or want to hold stocks for just a couple of days or weeks, then catching the right hour for buying and selling could translate into bigger returns.
- The best time of day to buy and sell shares is thought to be in the morning, in the first couple of hours after markets open, and during the last hour of trading. In the morning, the market usually reacts to the news that has come out since the previous day’s close, factoring it into the stock price. Meanwhile, trading generally heats up in the last hour of the day, as day traders look to close their positions.
- These periods often come with high trading volumes as well as high volatility, which day traders prefer. However, if you are a beginner, you should avoid trading during these hours for the same reason, as big price swings are more frequent.
- During the course of the day, trading volume and volatility tend to flatten out and stock prices stabilize somewhat, making this the best time for inexperienced traders to buy and sell stocks.
Keep in mind that different markets around the world are open at different times, so make sure you know what the ‘best time’ means for your time zone. For example, US markets are open between 9:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. EST. – link to trading times
Best day of the week to buy and sell stocks
Some brokers believe that there are certain days of the week that are better for buying and selling stocks. However, much of the evidence is anecdotal and does not hold up to closer scrutiny when looking at historical data, especially for the last 50 years or so.
- Nevertheless, Monday is thought to be the best day of the week to buy shares on the stock market. This “Monday effect” or “weekend effect” is based on the theory that the market on Monday generally follows the trend of the previous Friday – if it was up then, it will continue to rise, while if it was trending down, the decline will continue. This offers traders an opportunity to ride these trends. Trading volume and volatility is also usually higher than usual on Monday.
- Some traders subscribe to the school of thought that markets usually dip on Monday, which in this scenario means it is a good day to buy shares of undervalued companies at a lower share price.
- On the flipside, the consensus tends to consider Friday to be the best day of the week to sell stocks. This is based on the belief that markets usually trend upward during the course of the week, peaking on Fridays. Also, many find it advisable to sell on the last day of the week, believing that bad news tend to come out on Friday night or over the weekend, to which the market will react only on Monday.
Best time of the month to buy and sell stocks
There seems to be even less agreement on whether there is an optimal time within a month to buy or sell shares. One term that usually comes up in this context is the “pay day effect”.
This holds that trading activity in general increases around the time when people get their monthly pay, usually near the end or beginning of the month. The theory goes that with the added cash, traders’ interest in stocks rises at this time, which may drive up share prices.
Conversely, there is a belief among some traders that share prices are usually lower around the midpoint of each month, making this a good time to buy stocks. Coupled with the opinion that a stock price generally goes up during the course of the month, there is a stock trading strategy that recommends buying your preferred instrument near the middle of the month (between the 10th-15th) and selling it at the end of the month.
Best month to buy and sell stocks
There are also several adages and hypotheses about which months of the year are the best for trading stocks. Traditionally, it was thought that the best months of the year for buying and selling shares were in the period from the end of October to the beginning of May. However, in today’s market environment there is little evidence anymore to support these theories.
Let’s take a look at some common conceptions:
- “Sell in May and go away”: probably the best-known advice in this area. Historically, it is based on the thinking that most wealthy investors and traders would leave London or New York as summer approaches, spending their vacation abroad, where it would be harder to monitor their finances. So they would sell their stocks and holdings beforehand, causing a slump in the market that would persist until the end of summer. You can see why in today’s world of permanently being online anywhere around the world, this no longer applies or makes sense.
- “Halloween effect”: this is based on the hypothesis that the stock market performs better in the period between October 31 (Halloween) and May 1 than in the May-to-October period. This has led many to follow the strategy of buying stocks in November and holding them until the end of April, before arriving at the above-mentioned “sell in May and go away” stage.
- “Santa Claus rally”: as the name suggests, this thinking posits that stocks generally rally in the period leading up to Christmas at the end of December and into the new year. There are many theories as to what is behind this, including the positive holiday mood, the spending of end-year bonuses, or institutional investors staying off the market at this time, leaving the floor to generally more optimistic retail investors.
- “January effect”: with the start of the New Year, there is often an upward rally in share prices. As the end of the year approaches, some investors usually sell some stocks for tax purposes. This presents a buying opportunity for others, which, coupled with optimism for the new year, leads to increased stock prices in January – or so the reasoning goes.